How Inflation Affects Used Gun Prices (And Why Now Might Be the Time to Sell)

You’ve probably checked used-gun prices lately and walked away more confused than informed. One listing looks like a steal, the next feels like it’s priced for a different decade, and inflation has turned “what it’s worth” into a moving target.

The decision is real: you don’t want to leave money on the table, but you also don’t want to slap on an optimistic number and watch it sit for weeks. Inflation pulls in two directions, higher new-gun pricing and availability pressure can lift used values, while the same inflation squeezes buyers’ budgets and caps what they’ll actually pay.

To stay sane, you need a defensible, current estimate built on what’s happening right now. FBI NICS publishes monthly and annual totals that are widely used as a proxy for firearm market activity, and 2020 hit about 39.7 million NICS background check transactions, the highest annual total in FBI NICS reporting. NICS is not a direct measure of sales, since one check can cover multiple firearms or none, and some checks are permit-related. Pair that demand signal with the CPI-U 12-month percent change, the BLS measure comparing the CPI-U index to the same month one year earlier, and you can separate “prices feel higher” from what the market is actually doing. The goal here is simple: understand why prices are weird, get to a realistic price band for your specific gun, and decide whether selling now makes sense for your model, condition, and local constraints.

Step 1

If your mental model is “inflation makes everything cost more,” used gun pricing will keep surprising you. Inflation creates multiple pushes and pulls at the same time, which is why two identical-looking listings can feel worlds apart: one is a great deal, the other is too expensive.

The gap usually comes from a mix of higher price anchors from the new-gun market and softer follow-through from buyers who are watching their budgets more closely (see how supply and demand affect firearm resale prices).

1. Track manufacturing input costs as they climb, because that lifts new-gun MSRPs and quietly drags used prices upward. The BLS publishes PPI commodity indexes for iron and steel (WPU101) and aluminum and aluminum products (WPU102) as indicators of metal input costs; when those inputs are more expensive, “new” gets pricier and “used” stops needing to be cheap to look attractive. Example: if the closest new equivalent jumped in price, a clean used one can sell at a higher number without looking unreasonable.
2. Count distribution, shipping, and insurance pressure, because it shows up as higher shelf prices and fewer real promotions. The BLS CPI includes categories such as shipping and delivery services that can reflect distribution-cost pressure. Used-price implication: the “sale price” you were used to seeing may disappear, which raises what buyers consider normal. Example: if free shipping and rebates dry up, a used listing that includes shipping can look more competitive than it did last year.
3. Expect tighter household budgets to make buyers trade down, delay purchases, or negotiate harder, even while prices are anchored higher. The practical result is a wider spread: common models that used to move fast at mid-range pricing start sitting unless the deal is obvious. Example: a buyer who planned to buy new might switch to used, but only if the discount feels meaningful.
4. Watch interest rates, because higher rates tend to squeeze discretionary spending and slow big-ticket, “nice-to-have” purchases. FRED’s Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) rose from about 0.08% in early 2022 to about 0.33% after March 2022, about 0.83% after May 2022, and about 1.58% after June 2022. Used-price implication: collectors may browse, but fewer close at ambitious numbers. Example: a rare piece can keep its ask price, yet take longer to find the right buyer.
5. Recognize hard-asset psychology, because some buyers treat durable goods as a store of value when prices feel unstable, supporting demand in specific categories. This can be strongest in scarce, collectible, or “must-have” configurations, while ordinary modern guns still face price sensitivity. Example: two categories can diverge in the same month, with a hard-to-find item staying firm while a common one needs a sharper discount to move.

Use today’s replacement cost, meaning the all-in cost to buy the closest new equivalent right now, as your reality check, but don’t ignore today’s buyer mood. Inflation can raise the anchor price while simultaneously making buyers slower and pickier, so price off current new-gun anchors and current demand, not last year’s memory (compare against recent gun market pricing trends).

Step 2

The macro stuff explains why the whole used market can drift up or down. But when it comes time to name a number for your specific firearm, the details do most of the heavy lifting.

Your sale price is usually decided by specifics, two pistols that look identical across a counter can land hundreds apart because buyers pay for the exact variant, the real condition, what’s still original, and what’s legally and financially easy to transfer.

Model details move value because they change what the gun does, and what buyers think they’re buying. The catch is that “basically the same” is where listings get punished for vagueness. Write it down precisely so your price conversations start on solid ground.

• Exact make, model, variant, and generation: small spec differences can change demand and compatibility with parts and mags.
• Concrete example: Glock Gen5 is often preferred over Gen3 because Gen5 adds an ambidextrous slide stop lever, uses the Glock Marksman Barrel (GMB), and removes the finger grooves that are present on many Gen3 frames.
• Caliber, finish, and configuration: list the actual chambering, the finish as-marked, and the configuration (barrel length, frame size, sight type) instead of relying on photos alone.

Condition is where sellers overestimate and buyers get skeptical. A practical way to keep the conversation consistent is to use the NRA Modern Gun Condition Standards, many people communicate condition largely by the percentage of original finish remaining: New (100%), Excellent (98-99%), Very Good (95-97%), Good (90-94%), Fair (80-89%), and Poor (below Fair range). That framework only helps if you back it up with clear wear photos.

• Condition grade: pick the closest band and note where the wear actually is (muzzle, slide flats, high edges, grips).
• Round count estimate: even a rough range plus honesty beats “low round count” with no context.
• Maintenance signals: note spring replacements, recent cleaning, and any documented work.

Included items can add real buyer confidence, but only if you list them precisely. The friction is that “comes with extras” often means “unknown, maybe missing,” so spell it out.

• Magazines: count them and list capacities.
• Optics and mounts: include exact model names and whether original sights are included.
• Box, manuals, and factory case: especially helpful for buyer trust and resale later.

Mods are not automatically bad, they just narrow the buyer pool. The safe way to keep value broad is to disclose changes and, when possible, include the original parts.

• List every modification: trigger parts, coatings, porting, stippling, threaded barrels, aftermarket sights.
• Call out reversibility: “includes factory barrel and internals” usually reads better than “custom build” to a wider market.
• Provenance: for collector-leaning guns, documentation like original receipts, armory papers, or a letter of authenticity can matter more than one extra magazine (and what makes a gun collectible can materially change resale value).

Legal friction changes value because it changes who can legally take delivery, and what you can include without headaches. You do not need to become a lawyer to benefit from this, you just need to flag potential constraints and verify current law where it applies.

• Magazine capacity limits: for example, California generally prohibits transfer of magazines over 10 rounds, which can mean those mags cannot be included as-is, verify current rules before you advertise them.
• Roster concepts: California DOJ maintains the Roster of Certified Handguns, and roster status can affect whether a typical buyer can receive a specific handgun through a California dealer, confirm the exact model listing if CA buyers are in play.
• Feature and named-model restrictions: California restricts certain “assault weapons” via named-model and feature-based definitions, if your configuration falls under a restricted definition, your buyer pool can shrink dramatically.

Before you try to price anything, make a one-page spec sheet and a matching photo set: model and generation markings, caliber and barrel length, finish, serial number area (photograph clearly, share responsibly), wear close-ups, round count estimate, a list of every included item laid out in one photo, and a short compliance note like “includes 17-round mags, verify transfer legality for your state”—and if you’re missing documentation, see how to sell a gun with no box or papers.

Step 3

A clean spec sheet keeps you from comparing apples to oranges. The next job is turning that detail into a price you can defend.

Once you’ve nailed your firearm’s value drivers (condition, accessories, originality), the quickest way to get burned is pricing off asking prices. Listings can sit for weeks because the seller is hoping. What matters is what buyers just paid.

That’s where sold comps earn their keep: recent completed comparable sales, not active listings. If you anchor to sold comps, you avoid the two classic mistakes, leaving money on the table by underpricing, or getting stuck with an overpriced listing that never converts.

1. Collect a small set of sold comps that match your exact make and model, then get as close as possible on variant details that change price (generation, barrel length, finish, SKU, factory package).
2. Filter for recency and relevance, because older sales can be stale in a volatile market. If you have to choose, “closer match” beats “bigger sample.”
3. Record the fields that explain price differences: sale date, exact model/variant, condition cues (finish wear, bore notes, matching numbers when relevant), included mags, box and papers, installed optics or lights, and any permanent mods.
4. Note the transaction details that change what buyers will pay: location, shipping included or extra, and sale format (auction vs fixed price), because those can push the same gun higher or lower without the gun itself changing.
5. Adjust each comp up or down using the value drivers you already identified, for example, discount for heavy wear or non-original parts, add for desirable factory configuration, include a realistic add for accessories only if they are actually included in the sale.
6. Sanity-check your number against replacement cost (what it costs to buy new). If new prices are elevated or availability is tight, pricing far below the new-equivalent reality can be an expensive mistake.
7. Set a price band instead of one magic number: a quick-sale price (to move fast), a fair-market target (most likely to sell), and a premium or slow-sale number (only if you can wait). Inflation and short-term volatility can widen that spread, so a band is safer than a single figure.
8. Net-check the band against fees and friction so you think in take-home dollars, not headlines. GunBroker seller fees use a tiered Final Value Fee (percentage-based), so total platform cost generally rises with sale price, and inbound FFL transfer fees are often published around $20 to $50 per serialized firearm, often higher for NFA items, commonly $75 to $150+; they’re typically charged per firearm even if shipped together.

If you want a reality check from a buyer’s perspective, estimating what your gun is worth uses market data from dealer listings and auctions, and it weighs make and model plus condition details like finish condition, bore condition, matching serial numbers, and aftermarket parts. However you sell, your goal is the same: pick the price band that delivers the net proceeds you actually want after platform fees, shipping, and transfer costs.

Step 4

A price band tells you what you should get. Timing is about whether the market is likely to hit that band quickly, or make you work for it.

If you already have a realistic price band from sold comps and replacement cost, “the right time to sell” stops being a prediction game. It becomes a checklist of observable signals that tell you whether your band is likely to clear quickly without giving up net proceeds to repeated markdowns (and whether now is a good time to sell based on broader market signals).

• Replacement cost is still rising, and your comps have not softened. Higher new-gun pricing only helps if used buyers are still closing near your band.
• Local inventory for your category is thin. Fewer comparable listings means less pressure to undercut and fewer reasons for buyers to wait.
• Your comp set shows fast sell-through. If similar listings disappear quickly, you can list closer to the top of your band and still expect movement.
• You are seeing fewer price reductions on comparable listings. Less discounting is a sign sellers are getting traction without chasing the market down.
• Demand is concentrated in your specific type. Use trend trackers as a sanity check, for example GunBroker’s Top Selling Reports (top-selling brands and categories like handguns, rifles, and shotguns) based on its 2024 sales data, and its Used Firearms reports highlighting popular used models.

• Comps are sitting longer before they sell. More days-on-market usually means buyers are pickier at the same price band.
• Discounting is increasing. If sellers keep cutting prices to get offers, your net can erode fast.
• Similar listings are piling up. More supply forces you to compete on price, terms, or both.
• Demand is cooling after an event-driven surge. NICS checks spiked to 2,783,765 in Dec 2012 vs 1,538,885 in Dec 2011, and hit 3,740,688 in March 2020, but annual checks fell from 27,538,922 (2016) to 25,191,628 (2017). That is market activity swinging, not a promise of your sale price.
• Seasonal or regulatory news is distorting behavior. Short-term urgency can inflate listing prices, then fade before items actually clear.

1. Mark each of the five “sell” signals green or red using your current comps and local listings.
2. Count greens and reds.
3. Lean sell if 3+ are green, lean wait if 3+ are red, with no promise of future pricing.
4. Decide a time limit up front, for example 10 to 14 days, before any price change.

If your signals are mixed, take the low-regret path: list at fair-market inside your band, watch for saves, messages, and real offers, then adjust once, on schedule, instead of drip-cutting your way to a weaker net (and compare against a recent gun market report as a timing cross-check).

Step 5

Once you’ve picked a time window and a price band you can live with, the last big lever is the selling route. The channel you pick and your state’s transfer rules can change your net proceeds, your timeline, and your legal risk.

• Local dealer buy: Net: usually lower. Speed: fast. Hassle and risk: lowest effort; you accept the offer.
• Consignment: Net: higher potential. Speed: slower. Hassle and risk: store handles showing and paperwork; you pay fees and wait for the right buyer.
• Private sale (where lawful): Net: often strong. Speed: variable. Hassle and risk: more responsibility on you, especially around eligibility and documentation.
• Online marketplace, shipped to buyer’s dealer: Net: often strong, minus fees. Speed: medium. Hassle and risk: bigger buyer pool, but you add platform fees, shipping, insurance, and strict packing and carrier rules.
• Direct-to-buyer service: Net: convenience tradeoff. Speed: fast to medium. Hassle and risk: simple workflow, but the offer reflects the service doing the work; for example, Cash My Guns is operated by Dunlap Gun Buyers, a federally licensed firearms dealer (FFL), and buys firearms directly from private individuals nationwide, marketed as “Safe • Legal • Hassle-Free.”

State law decides whether a transfer must run through an FFL (Federal Firearms Licensee), meaning a licensed dealer who is legally authorized to process the transfer and compliance; using an FFL can lower your risk when rules are detailed or unfamiliar. Rules also affect what can be included (like magazines) and whether certain configurations can be transferred, which can shrink the buyer pool and pressure your net.

• Texas: Private, unlicensed intrastate sales do not require a background check or FFL processing, but transferring to a prohibited person is a crime.
• Florida: Private, unlicensed intrastate sales do not require a background check and generally do not require an FFL.
• California: Private-party transfers generally must go through a licensed California dealer (see Cal. Penal Code §§ 27545, 28050). Roster, >10-round magazine transfer restrictions, and assault-weapon restrictions can affect what sells and the price, verify current law.
• Georgia: Private, unlicensed intrastate sales do not require a background check or FFL processing, but transfers to restricted persons are limited.
• Pennsylvania: Most private handgun transfers must go through a dealer or county sheriff with a background check; private long-gun transfers are generally treated differently. Verify current law.
• New York: Check whether private sales must be processed through an FFL and whether magazine limits affect what you can include.
• New Jersey: Check buyer qualification requirements and whether an FFL transfer is required for private-party sales.
• Illinois: Check any state waiting periods, verification steps, and whether private sales require specific documentation.
• Colorado: Check whether private sales must be routed through an FFL and what exceptions exist.
• Washington: Check whether private-party transfers require an FFL and how magazine restrictions impact included accessories.

1. Confirm your state and local rules on private transfers, FFL requirements, and any restricted magazines or configurations.
2. Choose the route that matches your priority, highest net (more work) or fastest cash (lower offer); if you want a quick refresher on selling options and the tradeoffs in speed, price, and hassle, review the main routes before you commit.
3. Verify buyer eligibility where required, and do not proceed if anything feels off.
4. Use an FFL when required, or when you want the transfer handled by the legally authorized party for compliance and recordkeeping.
5. Document the transfer with a bill of sale or dealer receipt, and keep copies.
6. Ship only when the process calls for it, pack securely, follow carrier rules, and insure the package for replacement value.

This is not legal advice. Firearm laws change, so verify current requirements for your state and the buyer’s state before you transfer or ship anything.

Step 6

At this point, you’re not guessing. You’ve got the details that affect value, a price band tied to real sales, and a plan for how you’ll actually transfer the firearm.

You have what most sellers skip, the firearm details, a realistic price band from sold comps, and a clear view of channel tradeoffs. With that in hand, you can either list with confidence or take a clean offer without second-guessing.

• Gather your firearm details and photos (make, model, serial number for your records, condition notes, accessories).
• Set your price band using sold comps and your value-driver notes.
• Pick a selling channel based on net, speed, and hassle, then sanity-check net proceeds after platform fees, shipping, insurance, and transfer fees.
• Confirm your state rules and use the appropriate transfer path through an FFL.

If you are dealing with a collection, a rare or provenance-heavy piece, or anything NFA, bring in an expert, or get a compliant quote from Cash My Guns (operated by Dunlap Gun Buyers), an FFL that markets a nationwide process as “Safe • Legal • Hassle-Free.” and “Trusted Since 2013,” and bases valuation on factors like make and model.

Conclusion

Inflation doesn’t give you a single magic markup. It changes the two things that actually move your price: the replacement-cost anchor (what a comparable new gun costs today) and how willing buyers are to commit at your number. If you’ve been staring at wildly different listings and feeling like the market makes no sense, the fix is practical: document your exact model and condition, price off sold comps (not hopeful asks), and use a price band so you’re not guessing in a volatile moment. From there, pick the selling route that protects your net after fees, shipping, and transfer costs, and use an FFL when required. This is informational only, not legal advice; verify current rules, and consider getting a quote if you want a clean baseline before you list.